Verified on release 3.4.5.21 "Trade Management for Kazakhstan" (edition 3.4).
End of the month, the sales department head asks: "How much money will actually come in next quarter?" You have two dozen active deals on hand — some clients have almost signed, others are still "thinking." Adding up all the amounts is misleading: some deals will fall through. This is where you open "Probabilistic Forecast". It takes the potential amount of each deal, multiplies it by its probability of winning, and shows weighted, realistic revenue by period. Not a "dream," but an expectation.
1. Purpose
The report builds a revenue forecast based on customer deals: deal amount × probability of successful completion. It helps plan cash inflows, warehouse workload, and manager workload without relying on "raw" quote amounts. This is an analytical report — it doesn't post or change anything in accounting.
2. Where to find it
Section "CRM and Marketing" → "CRM and Marketing Reports" (section reports panel) → "Probabilistic Forecast". In some interface settings, the report is also accessible from the deal type card. The exact location of the item in the submenu depends on your database's command interface settings (worth checking in your specific configuration).
Quick way to open directly: "Tools" → "Go to navigation link" and paste:
e1cib/list/Отчет.ВероятностныйПрогноз
2a. How to find your release
"Help" (the "?" icon in the top right corner) → "About the program". In the window that opens you will see the platform version (e.g., 8.3.24) and the configuration release — a line like "Trade Management for Kazakhstan, edition 3.4 (3.4.5.21)". Everything described below applies to release 3.4.5.21.
3. How to fill in (configure the report)
The report doesn't enter data — you set filter and grouping parameters, then click "Generate" (F5). Let's go through the fields.
| Field / setting | Why it's needed | What happens if it's wrong |
|---|---|---|
| Period (required) | Date range for the expected deal closing. The forecast is built on the planned completion date. | Empty period — the report is either empty or returns "Period not filled in." Too narrow — some deals will "drop out." |
| Organization | Filters deals of a specific legal entity. | Not filled in — in a multi-company database, data from all organizations will mix, amounts will be "inflated." |
| Manager / Person responsible | Forecast broken down by salesperson. | Leave it empty — you'll get a summary for everyone; to evaluate a specific person you must set it. |
| Deal type | Different types have their own stages and probability scale. | Mixing types will distort the weighting. |
| Deal stage | Filter by funnel stage (e.g., only "Approval" and above). | Without a filter, "cold" deals with near-zero probability will get into the forecast. |
| Grouping (rows) | How to break down the forecast: by month, manager, customer, deal type. | Without grouping — one general figure with no analytics. |
| Active deals only | Excludes closed (won/lost) deals. | If unchecked — already completed deals will end up in the "future forecast." |
The key source of figures is the deal itself: its amount (potential income) and probability (%). The probability is either entered manually in the deal card or pulled automatically from the deal's stage (in the deal type settings, each stage is assigned its own percentage). If the probability is not filled in for the deals, the report will show zeros or full amounts without weighting.
4. Worked example
Three active deals for Q4 2026, organization — LLP "Astana-Trade". Amounts are stated including VAT 16%.
| Deal | Customer | Amount incl. VAT, ₸ | Stage | Probability | Weighted forecast, ₸ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-000101 | LLP "Bereke" | 5,800,000 | Contract approval | 70% | 4,060,000 |
| SD-000102 | IE Nurlan | 2,320,000 | Commercial proposal | 40% | 928,000 |
| SD-000103 | LLP "Kairat" | 11,600,000 | Initial contact | 20% | 2,320,000 |
| Total | 19,720,000 | 7,308,000 |
The "raw" funnel amount is 19,720,000 ₸, but the realistic probabilistic forecast is 7,308,000 ₸. This is the figure you report to your manager.
What stands behind the first deal (5,800,000 ₸ incl. VAT 16%), if it reaches fulfillment:
- VAT: 5,800,000 × 16 / 116 = 800,000 ₸
- Income excl. VAT: 5,800,000 − 800,000 = 5,000,000 ₸
The report itself does not post any entries. But when a deal is won and you create "Sale of goods and services" based on it, the program will generate the following per the standard Kazakhstan chart of accounts:
| Dr | Cr | Amount, ₸ | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1210 | 6010 | 5,000,000 | Sales income (excl. VAT) |
| 1210 | 3130 | 800,000 | VAT payable 16% |
| 7010 | 1330 | 3,200,000 | Cost of goods written off |
After payment from the customer: Dr 1030 Cr 1210 — 5,800,000 ₸. This is how the "probabilistic" figure from the report turns into real money in account 1030 and a VAT liability in account 3130.
5. Operation types (report variants)
The analytical report doesn't have "operation types" like a document, but it has generation and grouping variants:
- Forecast by period — revenue by month/quarter.
- By manager — each salesperson's contribution.
- By customer / counterparty — where expected income is concentrated.
- By deal type and stage — at what stage the money is "pending."
- With / without probability — compare the optimistic maximum and the weighted forecast.
Switched via the "Settings" button (or by selecting a saved variant in the report header).
6. What is generated when the report runs
This is a report, so it's important to be clear:
- No postings. The report does not make accounting entries.
- No register movements. It does not write data, it reads it — from the customer deal registers (amounts, stages, probabilities, persons responsible, planned dates).
- No electronic documents (ESF, SNT) are issued. ESFs in the ESF IS and SNTs are generated later — from actual sale/shipment, not from the forecast.
The result of running the report is a table/chart output on screen, which can be saved or printed.
7. Printed forms
The report has no separate form — the generated result itself is printed:
- Print (Ctrl+P) — send the table document to a printer.
- Save as… — export to Excel (.xlsx), PDF, .mxl, etc.
- Chart — if a graphical variant is available, the forecast can be displayed as a bar chart by period.
- Send by email — from the "More" menu of the table document.
8. Common errors
"Period not filled in" — no date range set. Specify the period in the header and regenerate (F5).
The report is empty although deals exist. Causes: (1) the deals' planned completion date is outside the selected period; (2) an organization/manager filter is set that the deals don't match; (3) the "active only" filter is on while the deals are already closed. Remove the extra filters and expand the period.
The forecast equals the full deal amount (probability not accounted for). The "Probability" field is not filled in on the deal cards, or percentages are not configured for the stages. Set the probability in the deals or configure it by stage in the deal type settings.
Amounts are doubled / overstated. Organization not set in a multi-company database, or one deal is counted both by stage and manually. Set an organization filter and check for duplicate deals.
"Insufficient rights to perform the operation." The user doesn't have rights to CRM reports. Contact the administrator — a role with access to the CRM and marketing subsystem is needed.
9. FAQ
Does this report post entries or make movements? No. It's an analytical report: it only reads deal data and shows a forecast. It creates no postings, ESFs, or SNTs.
Where does the probability come from? From the customer deal card — the "Probability" (%) field. It is usually filled in automatically from the deal's stage: each stage is assigned its own percentage in the deal type settings.
Is VAT accounted for in the forecast? The report shows amounts as they are entered in the deals. If amounts are stated including 16% VAT, the forecast will also include VAT. To plan "net" revenue, enter deal amounts excluding VAT or use the appropriate indicator.
How does it differ from the "Sales Funnel"? The funnel shows conversion by stage (how many deals and at what stage). "Probabilistic Forecast" converts this into money: amount × probability = expected revenue by period.
Can I see the forecast for each manager? Yes. Set grouping "by person responsible/manager" or filter by a specific employee.
In what currency is the forecast built? In the deals' currency; if currencies differ, amounts are converted to the management accounting currency (tenge, ₸). Check the currency setting in the report parameters.
Why didn't a deal make it into the forecast? Most often its planned completion date is outside the selected period, the deal is closed (won/lost) while the active filter is on, or it doesn't match the organization/manager/type filter.
Can the forecast be exported to Excel? Yes: after generating — "Save as…" → .xlsx format. PDF and emailing are also available.
How do I get a deal included in the forecast? Make sure the deal is active, has an amount, probability (or a stage with a percentage), and a planned completion date within the report period.
Does the report affect tax calculations (VAT, CIT, IIT)? No. The forecast is not reflected in accounting or tax registers. Taxes (VAT 16%, IIT, social tax 6%, OPV, etc.) are calculated from actual sales documents and accruals, not from the forecast.
10. Related documents
What it is based on:
- Customer deal — the main source (amount, probability, stage, date, person responsible).
- Commercial proposal to customer and Customer order — linked to deals and form the forecast amounts.
What happens next (when a deal is won):
- Sale of goods and services — records the actual income (Dr 1210 Cr 6010, VAT Dr 1210 Cr 3130).
- Invoice (ESF) — issued in the ESF IS based on the sale.
- SNT — for movement/shipment of goods subject to tracking.
- Receipt of non-cash funds — closes the receivable: Dr 1030 Cr 1210.
How to find your release: "Help" → "About the program" — this shows the platform version and configuration release.
Instructions prepared for "Trade Management for Kazakhstan", edition 3.4, release 3.4.5.21.